In November of this year, the dynamics of both Europe and the United States could have a significant impact on China's exports, particularly in the automotive sector.

Not long ago, Trump stated in a speech that if he were to take office, he would impose tariffs of 100%, 200%, or even 2000% on cars imported from Mexico. This statement immediately sparked heated discussions. It is important to note that more than 20 Chinese companies producing automotive parts have established factories in Mexico, and automakers like BYD also have plans to invest and build factories in Mexico. For them, Mexico is a crucial gateway to the American and even the North and South American markets.

The European Union has passed a resolution to impose additional tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, with the tax plan set to officially take effect on October 30th. It is evident that under the pressure of both China and the United States, Chinese electric vehicles are facing immense challenges.

Has the "indirect" entry into the U.S. been successful?

Imposing additional tariffs has always been one of Trump's key economic policies, whether during his previous term or in his current campaign speeches, where he consistently mentions the imposition of tariffs.

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As we all know, although Trump often makes bold statements in his speeches, the logic behind them is to create momentum, which is well combined with some of the current potential issues and needs of the American people.

For example, he often talks about imposing additional tariffs, which is actually to bridge the psychological gap with the average American public. In recent years, severe inflation and national debt crises have led to economic downturns, high living costs, and a large number of people facing unemployment.The ordinary people of the United States are pinning their hopes on this transfer of power to bring about change, and Trump's governing philosophy aligns perfectly with their interests and aspirations.

In Trump's view, imposing tariffs is to protect domestic businesses, but the United States lacks a manufacturing industry with a relative advantage, so another purpose of imposing tariffs is to force the repatriation of basic manufacturing industries overseas.

After all, the United States also has a vast market. If basic manufacturing industries return, it can alleviate some unemployment issues among the people and relatively reduce their living costs, and inflation can also be eased.

So, why is it said that the United States imposing high tariffs on Mexico will affect China's exports?

Firstly, it is because Mexico is adjacent to the United States and is also close to Central America. In terms of geographical location, investing and building factories in Mexico has a relatively wide radiation range.

Secondly, Mexico has the most favorable policies for entering the United States and Canada because they are both members of the North American Free Trade Area and have the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement.

Mexico's relatively free and open trade and investment environment attracts Chinese companies to invest.

Finally, Mexico lacks a complete new energy industry chain. Although Tesla's large factory is under construction, production, and operation, the incomplete industry chain also provides a broad market and opportunity for Chinese automotive parts manufacturers.

Among Chinese automotive parts companies investing in Mexico, there are already 16, and the proportion of overseas revenue has exceeded 30%.

It can be seen that under the background of the United States sanctioning Chinese companies, they can also achieve the goal of "indirectly" entering the United States by leveraging Mexico as a stepping stone.However, in the eyes of Trump, who has always adhered to the policy of "America First," this is absolutely not allowed. Therefore, he proposed that "if he is elected this year, he will impose high tariffs on Mexico."

It seems to be aimed at Mexico, but in reality, it is mainly aimed at Chinese auto parts companies and some car manufacturers.

Of course, this will not have too much impact on Chinese companies. After all, the Chinese have a tradition of forging ahead and building bridges when encountering mountains and rivers, as the old saying goes, "There are always more solutions than problems."

Will they bear the punitive tariffs themselves?

In fact, under the sanctions of Western countries against Chinese companies, how to break through the blockade and find a new way out is a problem they need to solve together.

In early October, with the approval of some countries, the EU passed a resolution to impose tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, which officially came into effect on October 30.

At first glance, it seems that this will have a great impact on the export of Chinese electric vehicles, but in reality, it is not the case.

Firstly, even though the EU passed this resolution, not all EU countries support it. France is the most supportive, but Germany and German car manufacturers are opposed.

Why is that?

Because Germany is the largest car manufacturing country in Europe, but it still lacks certain breakthroughs in new energy. They need to achieve innovation and breakthroughs through competition and cooperation with Chinese electric vehicles.Moreover, German automakers such as Mercedes-Benz and BMW hold a significant share in the Chinese automobile market, and they are also concerned about potential countermeasures from China. Additionally, Europe is not a primary export market for Chinese electric vehicles; the vast Chinese consumer market can absorb a portion of the production on its own.

Regarding Trump's remarks, even if he were to successfully take office and impose high tariffs, Chinese parts manufacturers and automakers could invest and establish factories in other countries. Furthermore, the main purpose of setting up factories in Mexico is to reach Central and South America, as these regions are predominantly developing countries with a lack of various industrial chains and relatively untapped market potential.

It can be said that even if Western countries impose sanctions on Chinese enterprises, China, with its robust manufacturing capabilities, complete industrial chains, vast domestic market, and absolute advantages in the field of new energy electric vehicles, can break through their encirclement. Ultimately, the punitive tariffs imposed on China would be borne by the citizens and manufacturers of the Western countries themselves.