Dollar Hegemony's Downfall: Divine Will or Inevitable Collapse?

On October 27th, during a press conference, U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen was asked whether the status of the U.S. dollar as the global reserve currency remains stable. A dramatic moment occurred when the U.S. Treasury emblem hanging on the podium fell to the ground with a crisp sound.

Perhaps the heavens have already provided an answer to this question in advance.

The proliferation of U.S. dollars, and the SWIFT system, which is considered a financial nuclear weapon, may have already destined the dollar to follow a path of decline, to be replaced by the trend of "the rise of the East and the fall of the West."

Following the renewal of the currency swap agreement between the Bank of Japan and China, on the 24th, HSBC's Hong Kong branch will join the Renminbi Cross-Border Payment System as a direct participant.

As an old ally of the United States, has the United Kingdom already seen the decline of the U.S. dollar?

When in doubt, look to the United Kingdom.

As an old ally of the United States, the United Kingdom is often jokingly referred to as if it were a state of the U.S., and this is not without reason. The relationship between the United Kingdom and the United States is indeed quite extraordinary.

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After World War II, as a victorious country, the United Kingdom did not experience the joy of victory. Not only did it relinquish its position as the world's hegemon, but even the pound sterling's gold valuation system, which allowed it to earn money while lying down, was replaced by the U.S. dollar. What's more surprising is that the United Kingdom eventually became an ally of the United States.

Perhaps there are disagreements behind the scenes, but on the international stage, the United Kingdom is the one that follows the United States above all else.Recently, while the United States is preoccupied with the internal chaos of the election, the United Kingdom has quietly accomplished a significant move. On October 24th, the renowned HSBC Bank of the United Kingdom announced that its Hong Kong branch would directly participate in the cross-border payment system for the Chinese currency, the Renminbi (RMB). Moreover, the co-CEO of the bank's Asia-Pacific region unabashedly stated that their purpose in doing so is to better meet the needs of their clients, significantly increase the usage rate of the RMB, and thereby greatly facilitate individuals and businesses in conducting trade more conveniently and efficiently with various parts of the world.

Although the UK's action is also driven by interests, it has also, to some extent, promoted the RMB cross-border payment system. In 2015, the Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) was officially launched, which already indicated China's strategic layout on the path to internationalizing the RMB. Since it was difficult to break into the European and American markets, China turned to emerging countries, focusing on the construction of the Belt and Road Initiative, economic communities, and BRICS nations. This payment system, which may not have been taken seriously by the United States, is now growing stronger like a spark, akin to a small fire that is becoming increasingly robust.

Currently, the UK's "advertisement" for this system undoubtedly holds a certain reference value in the current global context. It is said that there are two international sayings: when it comes to warfare, look to Italy; when faced with decisions and unsure of what to do, look to the United Kingdom. Although these sayings carry a teasing tone, historical experience shows that there is a certain rationality to their existence.

However, the current situation is that the world's "pie" is only so large. An increase in the usage rate of the RMB inevitably means that the hegemonic status of the US dollar is challenged. Therefore, for the Western countries, a counterattack may be imminent.Is it the will of heaven? The dollar hegemony may collapse like an avalanche.

However, the trend of global de-dollarization is becoming increasingly evident. Ever since the United States single-handedly turned the only international settlement system into a financial nuclear weapon and expelled Russia, this action has undoubtedly intensified global concerns about the dollar.

Furthermore, with the United States on the verge of surpassing $36 trillion in debt, coupled with the hollowing out of its manufacturing industry, the credit of the dollar is gradually overdrawn, and the hegemonic status of the dollar has shown signs of decline.

On October 27th, Janet Yellen, the outgoing U.S. Treasury Secretary, was asked a question at a press conference about the global reserve status of the dollar as the only international currency, which is naturally self-evident, but whether its stability is solid.

Before Yellen could answer, the large U.S. Treasury emblem on the podium behind her fell down first, making a loud noise.

Does this imply that the dollar hegemony is beginning to decline? It seems that God has already given the answer.

However, to maintain the dollar's position as the top dog, the most important factors are twofold: the first is everyone's confidence in it, and the second is its credibility.

Speaking of confidence, it mainly depends on the overall strength of the United States, especially in terms of its economy.

Even though the United States is still the world's largest economy, we cannot ignore issues such as the decline of manufacturing, the widening wealth gap, and the gradual slowdown in economic growth, all of which have diminished confidence in the dollar.

Moreover, it is clear to everyone internationally that multipolarity is an unstoppable trend, not just in politics but also in economics, where a more just and fair order is needed.Undoubtedly, the status of the US dollar as the world's primary reserve currency remains unshakable, with no currency currently able to directly replace it. However, this does not mean that we will allow the US dollar to continue to dominate exclusively.

Now, an increasing number of countries and regions, such as Russia, India, and ASEAN, are quietly or openly promoting "de-dollarization" efforts. For instance, they have significantly reduced their holdings of US Treasury bonds and have begun to purchase large amounts of gold to increase their reserves.

In terms of international trade settlement, they have also started to try to bypass the SWIFT system and the US dollar. For example, BRICS countries are discussing the creation of a new international payment system, which would allow them to avoid unreasonable interference from the United States.

In this context, the hegemonic status of the US dollar will definitely be affected and may even decline. Previously, the United States not only expelled Russia from the only international clearing system but also encouraged the European Union to confiscate Russia's overseas assets. With such behavior from the United States, which country would feel at ease allowing the US dollar to dominate alone?

However, on October 24th, in response to the US and Europe's confiscation of Russia's overseas assets, Russia also began to imitate their actions by freezing the assets of Western unfriendly countries and depositing them into its own accounts.

Therefore, whether it is HSBC's involvement in the renminbi payment system or Russia's counterattack, it is gradually becoming clear that the United States' attempt to use the US dollar to threaten other countries will become increasingly ineffective.Moreover, just look at the enormous debt the United States is carrying now.

It's as high as 35 trillion, and this figure is still skyrocketing wildly.

Why is that? It's simple: they want to create some excitement to stimulate their domestic economy in order to deal with fierce competition from China and Europe. However, due to issues such as industrial hollowing out and soaring labor costs, what the United States wants to achieve often requires a significant investment of money.

As a result, the debt accumulates like a snowball, and investors in the market start to worry about potential issues with U.S. debt, which undoubtedly poses a serious threat to the status of the U.S. dollar.

So, the hegemonic position of the U.S. dollar is precarious. This is not only an inevitable trend of the times but also a bitter fruit sown by the United States itself.

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