Abstract: Bull markets actually originate from panic. Almost any bull market in assets stems from panic. The current gold bull market is actually a panic triggered by the global economic development encountering a major bottleneck, with the world fearing that there are not many assets that can preserve value. This has further driven the bull markets in gold, cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, and leading stocks. These types of assets will continue to be in a bull market.
Gold could double in price? Prices change daily, and the panic over the world's major development bottlenecks has led to a global scramble for core assets. These types of assets will continue to be in a bull market.
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The explosion of internet and information technology has made the world transparent, with market values becoming increasingly clear, which in turn has led the world to realize that there are not many core assets. In order to preserve and increase value, the market is frantically pursuing core assets, driving them to become more and more valuable. The reason is that the discovery of too few core assets has led to panic, fearing that if they buy late, they will miss out, thus driving the bull market!
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The present is a great era, but also a bad one. The good part is that the world has become smaller and less mysterious. The bad part is that the world is too small, and there are not many choices. The market is highly sensitive because no one wants to be cannon fodder, to put it bluntly, no one wants to be a fool. As a result, various anxieties arise, and you may find that life is full of anxieties, and if you can't adjust, you will be overwhelmed by them.
In the past, in agricultural societies, people only farmed, and the world outside the village seemed vast. Now, in the information age, with no new discoveries beyond Earth and everything on Earth turned upside down, it seems we have lost something. The result is conflict after conflict, war after war. World Wars I and II were initiated by the West, and it seems that World War III will also be triggered by the West.
The reason is the allocation of resources. This conflict is about the allocation of resources. No one wants to work; why should I do the hard work? This is why the West initiates action. They always talk about the beauty of peace, but the ones who keep fighting are the so-called civilized West.
Why is gold so bullish? Recently, the international gold price has broken through $2250, setting a new historical high! The reason is that the world has fewer and fewer high-quality assets to choose from. There are 224 countries and regions in the world, with 193 being countries and 31 being regions. However, due to the breakthrough of the information revolution, the world has become transparent, and it is no longer possible to create gods to deceive people. What is valuable and what is not is becoming increasingly clear. Also, because of this transparency, the market has discovered that the number of core assets people can actually choose from is becoming fewer and fewer.
In the past, there were more than 170 currencies globally, but now these currencies are being phased out in large numbers. The world does not need so many currencies; only a few are needed. It's like in our daily lives; we only need one or two of the same type of product. Having more is tiring? Annoying? No, behind it is a value that the more a product is used, the more valuable it becomes.The grand bull market for gold is merely driven by the global demand for assets to appreciate and preserve value. The inflation of the US dollar affects its purchasing power. Some opinions suggest that the US dollar is going to cut interest rates, thus propelling the rise in gold prices. In reality, this is just one catalyst; the underlying issue is that global currencies, once digitized, are no longer as secure as they used to be. Bitcoin also rises due to a certain pursuit of safety, much like how some wealthy individuals immigrate, driven by underlying unease and propulsion. Gold is no different, as it remains the hard currency in the world that can span thousands of years and still maintain superlative value. There is no other like it!
The US dollar has its limitations, and so do the major nations. Therefore, only nuclear assets are eternal or can preserve value over a longer term. The wealth generated daily in the world is constantly seeking to preserve and increase in value, thereby driving the significant rise in these nuclear assets.
If we were to describe this panic with an environment, it would be that global development has encountered a significant bottleneck, which in turn has driven a global cash panic and a grand bull market for gold and other nuclear assets.
Why do we say that global development has encountered a significant bottleneck? Because the Earth is just so big; who will work for you, and who are you willing to work for? Currently, humans are looking for replacements in the form of robots, and that's why robots are becoming popular. You must find a replacement; otherwise, the toil will never cease, and this toil is the source of conflict.
The world is just so big. The United States and Europe have completed their industrialization, and as island nations, they have become more rigid and immobile. Meanwhile, the East has developed to a point where it can challenge the United States, and the US is not willing to accept this. Moreover, India has gone wild, with a GDP growth rate reaching 8% annually. Urbanization, which the West has left behind, is not a concern; what matters is its value. India is currently experiencing a massive urbanization boom, driving significant wealth growth in the country. Recently, the Hurun Research Institute's 2024 Global Rich List showed that Mumbai, India's largest city, surpassed Beijing, China's capital, to become the Asian city with the most billionaires.
Where in this world is there still undeveloped land, where is there still closed off? Almost nowhere, Africa? In fact, they are also rapidly urbanizing. It's not about technology; it's about enlightenment. Once enlightened, they rise, and then it's about seizing and guarding resources.
The world is almost fully developed, but assets will not wait until development is complete to seek assets that preserve value. They will act in advance, just like some entrepreneurs who exit early. There is no other way; it's all for survival. This panic leads to global core assets being highly sought after by funds. There are not many core assets that can appreciate and preserve value. This panic is the reason for the grand bull market for gold and other core assets, and it has only just begun. Breaking through $2,250 is nothing; in the face of global development bottlenecks, it's not impossible for gold to double in price.
In the past decade, US stock ETFs, Japanese ETFs, and European ETFs in the past two years— these core stocks composed of leading core assets from various countries and major regions— have continued to rise, driven by the panic of global development bottlenecks. Why invest in India? People fear there won't be another India. Why go to the US? Because many small countries fear their own currencies are doomed. Didn't Argentina directly abolish its own currency? That's exactly what happened.
Why is the A-share market so bearish? There's no need to discuss this in detail; too much talk can lead to trouble. In summary, it's about value, whether it's worth money, and whether it's a core asset. The world doesn't need tens of thousands of listed companies, and it doesn't need so many countries. Unification is the law of world development because the more unified, the stronger the power. It's unstoppable! The future of A-shares lies in core leading stocks because a large amount of capital actually doesn't have many choices. Not everyone wants to trade short-term; large funds prefer to lay out large leading core assets. The question is, in A-shares, who is that so-called super core leader?
It's not just A-shares; the future of the global market is the same, or rather, it's already the case— a large amount of currency is looking for core assets to invest in. It's just that in A-shares, many of the leaders we think of are either not listed, or they seem overvalued, or they have gone to the Hong Kong stock market. Or perhaps, they haven't awakened yet?In 2024, Xiaomi's automobiles are garnering significant attention, while Huawei's automotive division continues to maintain its strong momentum; essentially, 2024 is the year of smart cars. This sentiment is mirrored in the market as well, which, although not experiencing a steep rise, is primarily influenced by the overarching market conditions. With a total of 5 trillion in unlocked market value for this year and next, expectations are anticipated to improve thereafter.
In summary, the bottlenecks in global development are alarming various types of capital, which in turn are driving a bull market for core assets. The bull market for gold is just one aspect of this. In the future, core leading stocks of several major nations will also be considered core assets. When China's economy surpasses that of the United States, a substantial amount of money will flow into China. The current issue primarily revolves around the level of openness; it is essential to achieve a state of interdependence where "you have me, and I have you," making it difficult to make hasty changes, thus providing a greater sense of security. At that time, the global demand for Chinese assets will increase. In other words, China's core assets will gain strength. As the world becomes smaller, this kind of panic is the gene that propels the bull market. For now, it is prudent to patiently search for high-growth targets within future core assets. Beyond gold, stock markets, and real estate, regardless of the market, pay attention to the core leaders.
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