In the recent turmoil of the global financial markets, the U.S. Treasury market has also faced significant challenges. Renowned investment firm Neuberger Berman has recently issued a warning, cautioning investors not to blindly buy on dips in the face of the U.S. Treasury market sell-off, as the current selling may only be the beginning of a "surprisingly sustained" rise in yields.

Ashok Bhatia, Co-Chief Investment Officer of Fixed Income at Neuberger Berman, pointed out that multiple factors are driving up U.S. Treasury yields. On one hand, the direction of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy has become increasingly complex and uncertain, with the market widely expecting the Fed to potentially pause rate cuts or even shift towards rate hikes, which puts considerable pressure on the U.S. Treasury market. On the other hand, global market volatility has intensified, and geopolitical risks are frequent, leading to a general decrease in investor risk appetite and causing funds to flow into safe-haven assets, such as U.S. Treasuries. However, as the demand for safe-haven assets wanes, these funds may flow out, thereby pushing up U.S. Treasury yields.

Furthermore, the resilience of U.S. economic growth and the persistence of inflation are also key factors supporting the rise in U.S. Treasury yields. The U.S. economy continues to grow strongly, but inflation remains high, leading to an increase in market expectations for future inflation, which in turn pushes up U.S. Treasury yields. Bhatia specifically mentioned the risk of the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield returning to its mid-2024 peak, as it has already climbed to a certain level and may continue to rise in the future.

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In light of these changes in the U.S. Treasury market, Bhatia advises fixed-income investors to prepare for more downside volatility. He warns investors that the risks in the U.S. Treasury market are intensifying, and investors need to closely monitor market dynamics and risk factors to formulate reasonable investment strategies.

It is worth noting that the tense situation in the Middle East and the prospect of expanding fiscal deficits have also heightened market concerns. These factors could negatively impact the U.S. Treasury market and further push up yields. Therefore, investors need to be more cautious and rational when facing the U.S. Treasury market.

In summary, the U.S. Treasury market is undergoing significant changes. Neuberger Berman's warning reminds investors not to blindly buy on dips during the U.S. Treasury market sell-off, to avoid falling into "surprising" risks. In a complex and volatile market environment, investors need to closely monitor market dynamics and risk factors to formulate reasonable investment strategies and ensure the safety of their investments.