On the early morning of October 24th, the Federal Reserve released the U.S. economic situation survey report, also known as the Beige Book. According to the report, the economic activity in the United States from September to early October does not quite align with the economic situation published by the Biden administration. Does this indicate the beginning of the capital bets of the Federal Reserve's 12 banks on the U.S. election?

Following the release of the Beige Book, the Federal Reserve seemed to have made a definitive decision to continue lowering interest rates. However, the downward trend of the U.S. stock market could not be reversed. By the close of the market, the three major U.S. stock indices fell. At the same time, the Chinese stock market continued to release positive news, such as Shenzhen leading "bold capital" and striving to form a trillion-level government investment group. Can the A-share market at 3,300 points become a new starting point?

Is there a divergence between the Federal Reserve and the Biden administration?

On October 4th, the U.S. non-farm data for September was released, which far exceeded expectations. This was followed by the announcement of the U.S. CPI data. Prominent figures such as the Federal Reserve's "Guardian of the Night" competed to express their opinions, stating that the interest rate cut in September was a mistake, and that the U.S. economy remains robust and does not require a rate cut.

Thus, international capital is faced with the difficult choice between the U.S. stock market and the Chinese stock market.

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The U.S. economic situation is not as bad as the data released in September suggests.

It is important to note that U.S. interest rate hikes have a suppressive effect on U.S. manufacturing and real estate. The main support for the U.S. economy comes from consumption, and a significant part of the strong U.S. consumption is due to the massive monetary easing during the pandemic.

Therefore, it can be observed that the U.S. manufacturing sector showed signs of recession in August, but the U.S. economy in the second quarter remained robust.

However, as the Federal Reserve continues to raise interest rates, the savings in the hands of the American public are gradually being depleted. Coupled with the impact of high interest rates on U.S. manufacturing, which is beginning to gradually emerge, on one hand, the money in hand is decreasing, and on the other hand, it is becoming difficult to find ideal job positions. The economic crisis faced by the United States will become increasingly prominent.Therefore, the United States initiated interest rate cuts in September.

Once the Federal Reserve started the interest rate cuts, for China, the room for rate cuts was further opened up. The combination of policies, especially the release of good news for the stock market, has indicated one point: the economic growth of China in the fourth quarter, the country wants to drive China's economic growth through the stimulation of the stock market.

Therefore, in terms of such a signal, there is no need to worry too much about being harvested like leeks as soon as you enter.

For the United States, the non-farm data was announced on October 4th, and the United States obviously does not want to admit defeat so quickly. However, yesterday, according to the Beige Book published by the Federal Reserve, there are two contents.

Firstly, the economic conditions in various regions of the United States have not changed much, except for Richmond and Chicago, where there has been a slight increase.

Secondly, although the employment and retail sales data released by the U.S. government in September are much better than expected, the actual economy of the United States is still decelerating.

The data released by the Biden administration undoubtedly conveys a very clear message to the outside world - the U.S. economy is still booming.

From this perspective, the poor data in August and the 50 basis point interest rate cut in September in the United States are the actions of the Biden administration and the behind-the-scenes capital consortium to embellish the U.S. economy for the election.

Therefore, after the "Beige Book" was released, the U.S. stock market quickly responded.

In addition, the U.S. election will be held on November 5th, so it can be seen that the Federal Reserve will still cut interest rates this year, but the magnitude of the rate cut may not be as large as in September.Can 3300 Points Become a New Starting Point for A-Shares?

The interest rate cut by the United States is naturally a piece of good news for the global stock market, and it is no different for A-shares. The rise before the National Day is inseparable from the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut.

In addition, from September 24th to the present, a series of significant favorable policies in the stock market have come one after another, adding a new vitality to the A-share market that everyone is looking forward to.

Take the central bank's 50 billion yuan securities fund swap operation as an example, as well as the large-scale repurchase plans launched by various listed companies, and the latest reduction in the loan market报价 interest rate (LPR), these pieces of good news are one after another.

Many people have different attitudes towards the current A-shares, some think it is a bull market, and some think it is a bubble.

According to the news on October 24th, the financing balance of the A-share market in Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing has reached nearly 1.65 trillion yuan.

After looking at these detailed data, taking the total amount of 16,418.70 billion yuan that we have seen as a reference, the historical data of financing balance in the past four years show that the gap between the previous low point and the current high point is really too big.

This change is not a simple numerical fluctuation, it actually reflects a huge shift in market capital flows and stock investor sentiment.

If you see an increase in the financing balance of the exchange, it often indicates that people are optimistic about the future development of the stock market.

Because when people are bullish on the market, they may tend to use financing to increase the scale of investment in various assets such as stocks and bonds.The record high in financing balance is essentially signaling that a substantial amount of capital is continuously flowing into China's stock market. The continuation of this trend implies that stock prices may rise, and it can also attract more people to focus on this market.

Furthermore, according to the latest news released by Xinhua on October 24th, the total scale of domestic public funds has surpassed 32 trillion yuan for the first time.

Senior leaders have clearly stated that in order to promote higher-quality development of the private economy, they will fully support capable private enterprises to lead major national scientific and technological projects and open more doors to private enterprises, allowing them to use important national scientific research infrastructure.

At the same time, the Shenzhen municipal government has actively responded by supporting state-owned capital funds to boldly try new things, fully leveraging the effect of fiscal funds, and striving to form a government investment fund with a scale of more than 1 trillion yuan by 2026.

From these policy measures, it can be seen that senior leaders have begun to change their thinking, not only giving the green light to private enterprises but also adopting a more open attitude towards state-owned enterprises. All of this is aimed at revitalizing and energizing our economy.

Therefore, at the market index level of 3300 points, there is actually some support.

Coupled with various positive news, the bullish forces in the market are gradually growing.

However, to truly achieve an upward breakthrough, it may still take some time for adjustment and integration.

After all, the stock market's trends are always full of variables, and for us investors, it is crucial to remain vigilant and view things rationally.